A classic recipe for extreme wildfire risk is shaping up across portions of the southern Plains on Wednesday, coming barely 2½ weeks after the ignition of the largest wildfire in Texas history. The Smokehouse Creek Fire, which has torched approximately 1.06 million acres, is still only 89 percent contained and is squarely in the center of Wednesday’s risk zone.
That could mean rapid spread once again for established wildfires, as well as the sparking and kindling of new infernos. Relative humidity values as low as 7 or 8 percent will combine with winds gusting 40 to 50 mph to fan the flames of any blazes that ignite or are already burning.
The National Weather Service is using unusually serious terms to convey the danger, warning that a “wildfire outbreak [is] possible.”
Portions of the Texas Panhandle as well as western Oklahoma face an “extreme” fire risk, the highest level.
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“Fuels have dried even further since the wildfire outbreak at the end of February,” wrote the Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center in its fire weather outlook Wednesday morning. It said that energy release component values — a metric used to gauge the combustibility of vegetation — are in the top 5 percent for the time of year.
“Any fires that develop can spread rapidly,” warned the Weather Service office serving the area around Amarillo, Tex. “Outdoor burning is strongly discouraged.”
Exacerbating matters is the “curing,” or dying, of early sprouting grasses that were killed by a cold snap and snows in the Texas Panhandle two weeks ago. On Feb. 26, for example, Amarillo hit 82 degrees. On Feb. 28, the morning low was 22 degrees, and it snowed an inch the next day.
Behind the volatile setup is a sprawling upper-air disturbance diving south over the western United States. This high-altitude pocket of cold air, low pressure and spin is helping to energize a surface low-pressure system that will intensify in the lee of the Colorado Front Range.
As this low-pressure zone “deepens,” or sucks in more air, it will drag air down the Rockies and over the Plains. That induces “downsloping,” or the compression of air pockets as they descend to lower altitudes. The air consequently heats up and dries out, leading to warm, dry air near the ground. Actual air temperatures will be in the 70s — at least 10 to 15 degrees above average. That warm air will speed up evaporation, sapping the landscape of moisture.
In addition, the high-altitude disturbance will shift the roaring winds of the jet stream southward into the southern Plains. Some of the momentum from this jet will reach down to the ground, further intensifying wind speeds.
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Winds may be slightly less than with the late-February event — with peak gusts in the 40 to 45 mph range rather than 60 to 65 mph. But conditions are drier now.
Share this articleShare“The historic results of [the Feb. 26] event served to bring forth the realization of just how abundant and dry the fuels are across the area, proving to be primed for burning,” wrote the Weather Service office in Amarillo in an online forecast discussion. “For this reason, there has been some stronger messaging out there this time around, even with slightly less favorable winds likely in place.”
The fire threat should lessen into Thursday as a cold front passes, lowering temperatures and increasing humidity.
“Regardless, we continue to strongly urge everyone to do their part and help prevent anymore wildfires across the Panhandles,” the Weather Service wrote.
The Smokehouse Creek Fire, meanwhile, has been blamed for killing 3,600 cattle in the Texas Panhandle, and its full toll is just beginning to come into focus. Xcel Energy, a utility in Texas, acknowledged that its power equipment probably ignited the blaze, which was fanned by powerful winds.
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